Erdogan’s election prospects take a hit if a challenger drops out

Three days before the Turks vote in crucial presidential elections, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s chances of securing a quick victory on Thursday were dented when one of his challengers dropped out of the race, a move that likely benefited Erdogan’s main competitor. would come.

The withdrawal of one of the race’s four contenders also increases the chances that the main opposition candidate, Kemal Kilicdaroglu, can secure a simple majority of the vote on Sunday, a victory that would suddenly end Erdogan’s 20-year streak as Turkey’s most prominent politician. .

The simultaneous presidential and parliamentary elections will set the future course for Turkey, a major economy at the crossroads of Europe, Asia and the Middle East, and a NATO ally of the United States.

Opponents of Erdogan also see the elections as a decisive moment for Turkish democracy. A win for Erdogan, they say, would allow a leader who has extended his control over much of the state to gain even more power, while a loss would allow for a more democratic future.

“That’s the real choice we seem to face now: take the road to authoritarianism or change direction and go back to democracy,” said Ersin Kalaycioglu, a political science professor at Istanbul’s Sabanci University.

The elections may also change Turkey’s foreign affairs. Under Mr Erdogan, Turkey has pursued a non-aligned foreign policy that has upset its NATO allies. While Turkey condemned the Russian invasion of Ukraine and has sent aid to the Ukrainian army, Mr. Erdogan is seeking a closer relationship with Russia’s President Vladimir V. Putin.

Mr Erdogan has also hindered efforts to expand NATO. Although Turkey in the end voted to admit Finland the alliance, significantly extending the border with Russia, Mr Erdogan has so far refused to do the same for Sweden. Turkey has accused the Swedes of harboring Turkish terrorists. European officials have countered that Mr Erdogan appears to be using Turkey’s position in the alliance to settle political scores.

A coalition of six opposition parties that have backed a joint presidential candidate, Kemal Kilicdaroglu, a former civil servant, are seeking to oust Mr Erdogan. Mr Kilicdaroglu has vowed that if he wins, he will undo Mr Erdogan’s legacy by restoring the independence of state institutions such as the central bank in the foreign ministry, releasing political prisoners and strengthening democratic standards .

Recent polls have suggested a slight lead for Mr Kilicdaroglu, who was likely to receive a lift from the withdrawal of one of the other candidates on Thursday.

That candidate, Muharrem Ince, was predicted to win votes by single digits, but even that could have been enough to strip any other candidate of the majority, leading to a runoff between the top two voters on May 28.

Mr Ince announced on Thursday that he was withdrawing from the race after sex tapes allegedly showing him in compromising positions surfaced on social media. Mr. Ince dismissed them as fakes, but still withdrew from the race. He did not support any other candidate, but pollsters said voters who would have voted for him would be more likely to prefer Mr Kilicdaroglu to Mr Erdogan.

Since the ballots have already been printed, Mr. Ince’s name will still appear at the ballot boxes.

Another candidate, Sinan Ogan, is also running but his support is considered negligible.

Analysts warn that many Turkish polls have proven unreliable in the past and it may be surprising how this one turns out. Mr Erdogan remains popular among a significant segment of Turks, who love his nationalistic rhetoric, credit him with developing the country or simply have a hard time imagining anyone else in power.

Mr Erdogan has also tapped state resources to boost his chances. In recent months, he has raised the minimum wage, raised civil servant salaries, changed regulations to allow millions of Turks to take early public retirement, and expanded relief programs for the poor.

He promoted himself as a leader who has raised Turkey’s status on the world stage, he parked a Turkish-built warship in the center of Istanbul, became the first owner of Turkey’s first domestically produced electric car and observed via video link the first fuel delivery to a Russian-built nuclear power plant near the Mediterranean Sea.

He and his ministers have attacked the opposition as incompetent, supported by foreign powers and out to undermine family values ​​by expanding LGBT rights.

The opposition has tried to sell voters the prospect of a better future if they win, vowing to curb inflation, restore political rights and move Turkey away from what they see as one-man rule.

“These elections are very important and we need to end this autocratic, insane system,” said Bilge Yilmaz, an economist who oversees the economic policies of one of the six opposition parties. “The country deserves better, must do better.”