After US attacks, Iranian allies scale back attacks on US bases

Iran has made a concerted effort to rein in militias in Iraq and Syria after the United States retaliated with a series of airstrikes over the killing of three U.S. Army reservists this month.

Initially, there were regional concerns that the tit-for-tat violence would lead to an escalation of the conflict in the Middle East. But since the Feb. 2 U.S. strikes, there have been no attacks by Iranian-backed militias on U.S. bases in Iraq, and only two smaller ones in Syria, according to U.S. officials.

Before that, the U.S. military recorded at least 170 attacks on American troops in four months, Pentagon officials said.

The relative calm reflects the decisions of both sides and suggests that Iran has some degree of control over the militias.

The Biden administration has made clear that Tehran would be held responsible for miscalculations and operations by proxy forces, but has avoided any direct attack on Iran. The U.S. response “may have some effect,” Gen. Kenneth F. McKenzie Jr., a retired head of the Pentagon’s Central Command, said in an interview.

“The question is whether the militias will attack or not,” he added, “and at least for now they won’t.”

The silence also marks a sharp turn in Iran. Tehran has for months ordered its regional allies in Iraq and Syria to attack US bases in the Middle East as part of a broader fight against Israel, which is fighting Hamas in Gaza.

The U.S. and Iranian officials interviewed for this article spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss intelligence matters.

As the proxies’ attacks intensified, culminating in the deaths of three U.S. soldiers, Iranian leaders became concerned that the level of autonomy afforded to the militias was beginning to backfire and could push them to war, according to Iranian and US officials.

“They are afraid of a direct confrontation with the US. They know that if Americans were killed again it would mean war,” said Sina Azodi, a lecturer at George Washington University and an expert on Iran’s national security. “They had to put the brakes on the militia and convince them that a war with the US could first hurt Tehran and then the entire axis.”

Iran finances, arms, and provides technical support and training for a network of militant groups in the region it calls the Axis of Resistance.

The groups include Hezbollah in Lebanon; the Houthis in Yemen; militias in Iraq, such as Kataib Hezbollah and Hashd al-Shaabi; Hamas and Islamic Jihad in Gaza; and militias in Syria. While Iran focuses an overall strategy on the axis, the level of day-to-day control and coordination varies. Tehran has the most influence over Hezbollah, with the Syrian and Iraqi militias falling in the middle and the Houthis being the most autonomous.

The Iranian effort to contain the troops began shortly after the killing of three US soldiers in a drone strike in Jordan on January 28, when Washington promised a strong response.

General Qassim Suleimani, the high-level Iranian general killed by a US drone strike in 2020, kept a tight leash on Shiite militias in Iraq and Syria. That was largely because war raged in both countries for most of his term, and he ordered the militia to fight the Americans and then the Islamic State terrorist groups. But when Brig. General Esmail Ghaani succeeded him, most of those conflicts were resolved and General Ghaani adopted a hands-off leadership style, setting only broad directions, according to analysts.

General Ghaani, commander-in-chief of the Quds Force, the branch of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps charged with overseeing the proxies, has nevertheless been involved in coordinating the strategy vis-à-vis Israel and the United States for the various militias during the current war in Gaza.

He led a series of emergency meetings in Tehran and Baghdad in late January with strategists, senior Revolutionary Guard commanders and senior militia commanders to redraw plans and avoid war with the United States, according to two Iranians affiliated with the Guard . of them a military strategist. Reuters first reported the general’s visit to Baghdad.

In Baghdad, General Ghaani held a long meeting with representatives of all Shia militant groups operating under the umbrella of a collective they call Islamic Resistance in Iraq. The collective had carried out dozens of attacks on US bases and then claimed responsibility, and Washington blamed the group for the drone strike that killed the Americans.

General Ghaani told them that Iran and the various militia groups had made sufficient gains in pressuring the United States, as President Biden was facing intense criticism for his staunch support for Israel and rifts had developed between him and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel, the two Iranians. affiliated with the Guard said. A war between Tehran and Washington could also jeopardize the long-term goal of expelling the United States from the region, the two Iranians told the group.

Two of the larger Iraqi militias, Kataib Hezbollah and Harakat al-Nujaba, initially strongly resisted General Ghaani’s demand to pause attacks on Americans, arguing that fighting American forces was integral to their ideology and identity, the two Iranians said.

Influential politicians in Iraq, including senior clerics known as the marjaiah based in Najaf, a Shiite holy city, joined the efforts to convince the militias to pause the attacks. Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani also played a role, telling Iraqi militia commanders and General Ghaani that continued attacks on US forces were complicating negotiations between Baghdad and Washington on the withdrawal of US troops from his country , said Iranian. and Iraqi officials.

The commanders relented. Kataib Hezbollah announced it was halting attacks on US bases and that its decisions were independent of Iran.

The result of General Ghaani’s consultations was a new strategy that called for Iraqi militias to stop all attacks on US bases in Iraq, including the Kurdistan region in the north, and the US embassy in Baghdad. In Syria, militia groups have been asked to reduce the intensity of attacks on US bases to avoid fatalities, according to Iranian officials and US intelligence assessments. But the groups active against Israel in Lebanon and Yemen would continue at pace, the Iranians familiar with the strategy said.

Once attacks on Americans subsided, the United States refrained from targeting at least one senior militia leader after Feb. 2 to avoid disrupting the lull and sparking further hostilities, a Defense Department official said .

Another US official said the Pentagon was prepared to hit more militia targets if necessary, but had determined it would be counterproductive to carry out more strikes now.

The Guards military strategist said Iran believed that a direct war with the United States would work to Israel’s advantage, at a time when world opinion had turned against it due to the heavy toll of civilian death and suffering in Gaza. After more than a decade, the strategist said, Iran believes the country is enjoying enormous popularity among Arabs, who are angry that their own country’s leaders are not doing enough to support the Palestinians.

Sabrina Singh, a Pentagon spokeswoman, said last week: “Our assessment is that Iran is not seeking a broader regional conflict.”

“But they do support these militia groups that are attacking our armed forces,” she added.

Iran’s general policy is to keep multiple fronts cooking against Israel through proxies as long as the war rages in Gaza, even as Tehran-linked militias avoid attacking US bases.

Hezbollah in Lebanon exchanges fire with the Israeli army almost daily, and the Houthis in Yemen attack ships in the Red Sea and try to prevent commercial ships from reaching Israeli ports.

Attacks by Hezbollah and the Houthis will intensify if Israel launches an offensive against Rafah, the southern Gaza city where more than a million civilians are trapped, according to the two Guard members familiar with Iran’s new strategy. Osama Hamdan, a senior Hamas leader, said at a news conference in Iran last week that “any attack on Rafah will be met with a fierce response from the resistance.”

U.S. officials acknowledged that they faced a special challenge with the Houthis. The U.S. strategy toward the Houthis is to target the group’s formidable arsenal, prevent arms transfers from Iran and push for a ceasefire in Gaza.

While an important part of the confrontation between Washington and Tehran is on the back burner, other destabilizing dynamics in the region remain active and unpredictable. Iran and Israel are engaged in an ongoing shadow war, including a recent covert attack by Israel on two key gas pipelines in Iran and attacks on Iran-linked residential complexes in Damascus, the Syrian capital. Iran has not yet publicly retaliated against Israel after these attacks.

Colin P. Clarke, director of policy and research at the Soufan Group, an intelligence and security consultancy, said: “Iran has an uncanny ability to walk straight to the border and not cross it.”

But he added: “It doesn’t feel stable and it doesn’t feel like we’re over the hump, and things could really change at any moment.”