Southeast on high alert because the forecast threatens more rain

The sky above Atlanta was blue Thursday morning, but the ground made a crunching sound as you walked over it, soaked from heavy rain the day before that had left the streets muddy with red Georgia clay.

And before the city has a chance to dry out after Wednesday’s storm, another storm is threatening the eastern United States with excessive rain that is “of particular concern.” to forecasters for cities like Atlanta, where another two to three inches could fall Friday through Saturday.

A similar amount of rain drenched Atlanta on Wednesday, filling part of it creeks to flood stage. a NASA computer model shown that topsoil saturation exceeded 65 percent, and in some cases even higher. The boggy ground is preventing new rainfall from penetrating, increasing the risk of flash flooding if new rainfall occurs this weekend.

If the region were to receive the higher portion of the forecast rainfall, it could result in significant flash flooding and rapid rises in already elevated waterways. warned the National Weather Service office in Atlanta.

A few wet months have also kept capacity high elsewhere in the east, especially in the northeast, where more rain is expected to fall this weekend. More than an inch of rain fell in New York’s Central Park on Wednesday. And while the next rainstorm there isn’t expected to be as heavy as expected in the south, the rain forecast for Saturday through Sunday could lead to minor urban nuisance flooding in the city.

Severe storms can cause tornadoes.

Severe storms with damaging winds could produce tornadoes in Atlanta early Sunday morning. While that is not the biggest concern with this storm system, it is possible.

Tornadoes are more likely to form west and south of the city on Friday.

The storms in Texas Friday morning will move eastward during the day, bringing the risk of tornadoes along the Gulf Coast states of Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama and Florida.

There is still some hesitation among forecasters about how serious the tornado threat could become. As the ingredients needed to form tornadoes – rising moist warm air and changing wind speeds with height – become clearer, forecasters are likely to increase the expected tornado risk in the coming days.

How the forecast could change.

A warm conveyor belt of moisture, similar to the atmospheric rivers that often affect the West Coast, will pull moisture through the south and into the northeast.

Rain is expected to be less heavy in the Northeast than in the South as the southern end of the storm will use most of the available moisture. The storm system is also expected to move quickly through the Northeast, limiting the amount of moisture that can fall. If the storm weakens or more moisture flows, chances could increase, especially in New England, where ground is soaked to similar or higher levels than in the Southeast — but that’s not the likely scenario.

The moisture available to the south and the expected impact of higher altitude winds will allow storms to spread throughout the region. Training occurs when a storm forms over an area and, because a heavy amount of rain falls, creates the environment for another storm to form behind it, and so on. The longer the train, the more rain will fall in an isolated area. Therefore, one inch of rain can fall in one location, and five times that much in a spot a few miles away.

The location of the heaviest rain will depend on where these thunderstorms are located.

It is not likely that the flood risk in the South will end soon. More rain is likely by the end of next week, on top of what could fall this weekend.

That means that for a while, walking on the grass will feel more like walking on gelatin than on solid ground.