Brief rocket fire disrupts ceasefire in Gaza. How long can the ceasefire last?

A ceasefire between Israel and Palestinian fighters in the Gaza Strip was largely maintained on Sunday, save for a brief evening firefight, and routine returned hours after the two sides agreed to end a five-day escalation that cost at least one’s life. 33 people in Gaza and two in Israel.

But across the region, the question was when, rather than if, the ceasefire would be broken. The escalation, at least the 11th involving Gaza since 2006, came just nine months after the previous days-long battle between Israel and militias in the coastal enclave.

The Israeli army said a single Palestinian rocket was fired into an open area near Gaza on Sunday night, causing no damage but reminding residents of the fragility of the ceasefire.

Regional dynamics also remain unstable: Israel’s 16-year blockade of Gaza, implemented in conjunction with Egypt, remains in place, as does its 56-year occupation of the West Bank, both fueling Palestinian anger and violence. Hardline Palestinian militias that officially call for the destruction of Israel still dominate Gaza and maintain a strong presence in the West Bank. This reinforces the Israeli rationale for exercising control over both areas.

What was the state of the ceasefire on Sunday?

Israel allowed goods, food and people to re-enter Gaza on Sunday morning and allowed thousands of Gaza residents to return to Israel for work on construction sites and farms after authorities blocked entry and exit during the escalation last week.

Yet a broader blockade has remained in place: Since Hamas conquered Gaza in 2007, Israel has been blockading certain input to the enclave, especially electronic and computer equipment, fearing that militants might use them as weapons. Israel has also restricted most outbound travel from Gaza.

In southern Israel, life began to return to normal on Sunday, with schools and roads reopening and bomb shelters emptied as the threat of widespread Palestinian rocket fire abated. But the rocket fire on Sunday evening caused some residents to run for cover again.

In response, Israel said it had briefly shelled a Palestinian watchtower. There were no injuries and Palestinian militant leaders said the rocket was fired accidentally.

Palestinians once again embarked on a familiar reconstruction effort in Gaza: Officials there said Israeli airstrikes destroyed or damaged beyond repair 100 homes and apartments last week, and caused minor damage to more than 900 others.

Why might the armistice hold?

For now, Palestinian Islamic Jihad — the Iranian-backed militia that led the fight against Israel — appears thwarted. Israeli airstrikes killed several of the group’s top commanders, as well as several civilians, and the Israeli military said it destroyed some of its rocket launchers and missile arsenal.

Hamas, the larger and better-armed militia that controls the Gaza Strip, did not publicly interfere in the fighting. While Hamas has fueled recent violence in the West Bank and Lebanon, its leaders have recently shown that they do not want to involve their stronghold in Gaza in those campaigns.

Hamas officially aims to destroy Israel and, like Islamic Jihad, is considered a terrorist organization by countries such as Israel, Japan, and the United States. But it also governs Gaza and must ease an economy that has been crippled in large part by years of Israeli restrictions on the territory.

Mindful of that balancing act, Israel has issued about 20,000 work permits to Gazan workers over the past two years — a critical source of money and employment for an area where nearly half of eligible workers are unemployed. Experts claim that Hamas does not want to jeopardize that settlement for the time being.

Why would the ceasefire collapse?

Islamic Jihad has not yet been dealt near a fatal blow. Israeli officials estimate the group still has about 10,000 operatives and several thousand missiles. And while several of the group’s leaders were killed last week, it lost a similar number of commanders during its previous escalation last August — and then took less than a year to recover.

Because Islamic Jihad does not rule Gaza, its leaders need not worry about preserving the enclave’s economy. That gives the group more freedom to fire rockets in response to activities by Israeli security forces in the West Bank and in Israel. Israel’s arrest of a senior Islamic Jihad leader in the West Bank was one of the catalysts for the fighting last August, and last week’s escalation was partly prompted by the death of a second Islamic Jihad leader who was on hunger strike in an Israeli prison.

Hamas, like Islamic Jihad, is considered a terrorist group by countries such as Israel and the United States. Hamas fighters could also return to firing rockets if the group believes Israeli actions cross too many perceived red lines.

The group has threatened to respond to deadly Israeli military operations in Palestinian cities in the West Bank; far-right Israeli marches through Arab areas of Jerusalem; and Israeli police raids on the grounds of Jerusalem’s Aqsa Mosque, a site also sacred to Jews, who call it Temple Mount.

Recently, Hamas gunmen killed several Israeli civilians in the West Bank and were accused of firing rockets at Israel from Lebanon. If such attacks increase, Israeli leaders are likely to be pressured by hardliners in their own government to attack Hamas’ nerve center in Gaza, increasing the risk of retaliatory missiles.

What could break the circle?

Without a full solution to the wider Israeli-Palestinian conflict, analysts foresee no end to the recurrent violence in Gaza.

While small economic concessions from Israel have helped slow recent violence and lessen its intensity, they have not allayed the main causes of Palestinian anger: Israel’s broader economic restrictions on Gaza, its bipartisan justice system in the West Bank — and , for the extremist Palestinians who control Gaza, Israel’s very existence.

Moderates on both sides still hope to one day create a Palestinian state alongside Israel, but neither currently has the ability to resume meaningful peace talks. Israel’s far-right leaders reject the idea of ​​Palestinian independence, and the country’s small peace camp has little chance of gaining power. The Palestinian Authority, which co-rules parts of the West Bank with Israel, was expelled from Gaza in 2007 by Hamas, which does not recognize Israel.

A cartoon published in a leading Israeli newspaper, Yediot Ahronot, on Sunday summed up the mood.

“We need to finish this operation in Gaza,” Israeli army chief Herzi Halevi told a cartoon version of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. “Because soon we will have the next operation in Gaza.”

Gabby Sobelman reported from Rehovot, Israel, and Myra Noveck and Isabel Kershner from Jerusalem.