Ukraine MUST win by November – or Donald Trump will be kingmaker & Putin could attack Europe, warns ex-military chiefs
EUROPE must give Ukraine what it needs to win the war against Russia by November – or Donald Trump could be the conflict’s kingmaker, ex-military chiefs have warned.
Yesterday marked two years since Mad Vlad invaded Ukraine, igniting a cruel and gruelling war that has stoked fears among analysts about a looming global conflict.
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The Sun spoke to retired British Army Brigadier Ben Barry and former General Richard Barrons, as well as ex-Brit Colonel Hamish de Bretton-Gordon and experts in defence Professors Tim Willasey-Wilsey and Anthony Glees.
The military analysts explained that if Europe doesn’t step up for the 2024 “crunch year” – November could make the difference between Ukraine winning or losing.
Failure to secure meaningful progress would then potentially hand the kingmaker role to Donald Trump.
Experts warned that both Ukraine and Nato may not be able to rely on the US for support should Trump win the election in November.
And they warned a pullback from Washington in Ukraine could also lead to an emboldened Putin seeking to seize more territory in Eastern Europe.
Europe must therefore get its own house in order – and start providing more aid to Ukraine, and boosting its defence spending, rather than relying on the US.
Professor Glees explained that the only way to prevent a wider war between Nato and Europe, which could spark a global conflict, is to “enable Ukraine to drive Russia back”.
But Colonel De Bretton-Gordon told The Sun that Europe “can’t rely on the Americans, post November” for assistance if Republican frontrunner Trump wins the presidency on November 5.
Trump has been open to his scepticism over further military aid for Ukraine, has been critical of European nations not meeting commitments for Nato spending, and said he would end the Ukraine war in “24 hours”.
It is unclear what he meant by that – but Ukraine has always vowed never to give up any territory to Russia, and Zelensky called the comments “very dangerous”.
Trump looks set to be on the ticket for the White House.
Last night, he crushed Republican rival Nikki Haley in the South Carolina primary.
And he also enjoys a two-point lead over incumbent Joe Biden, according to a polling average by The Economist.
Time now appears to be running out for Ukraine, their resources are dwindling and soldiers on the frontline are freezing and exhausted.
And General Barrons thinks that Europe can easily afford to give the ammunition, equipment, training and money Ukraine needs before then “without breaking a sweat”.
Zelensky’s brave forces have made strides with cunning warfare techniques in the Black Sea and an impressive defence campaign, but they are struggling to withstand Russia‘s bloody war of attrition.
Putin’s forces army have attacked consistently and repeatedly in smaller groups spread along the frontline – edging further and further into Ukraine for two years.
In the process, Ukraine is thought to have lost between 30 and 70,000 troops – but the real number is a closely guarded state security secret.
Russia meanwhile is estimated to have lost some 400,000 men – but unlike Ukraine, they have a vast supply of manpower and weapons which they are happy to throw into the “meatgrinder”.
Biden has blamed his presidential rival Trump for stalling aid packages to Ukraine, and it has been claimed the Republican could go as far as looking at pulling the US out of Nato.
If he wins in November, cuts off the pipeline of support to Ukraine and pulls back from Nato, Putin’s apparent ambition to seize more of Europe could become that much easier.
One recent poll by the Pew Research Center showed half of the Republican party, particularly those who are strongly aligned with Trump, say the US is giving too much aid to Ukraine.
Some Trump-leaning Republicans argue the US should focus more on pressing domestic issues, such as immigration and the US-Mexico border, than spending billions on Ukraine.
And some recent delays in aid in the Senate have been due to attempts to secure support for their policies, rather than an ideological opposition for supporting Kyiv.
But whatever the reason for the opposition – a collapse in US support is warned to be potentially terminal for struggling Ukraine.
The number one thing is stopping Putin in Ukraine. Otherwise, the terrible reality of war in Europe is getting shockingly close
Colonel Hamish de Bretton-Gordon
Experts told The Sun that Europe needs to move away from a reliance on the US now and bolster their support into Ukraine with ammunition, fighter jets and precision missiles.
Former British tank commander Colonel Hamish de Bretton-Gordon told The Sun that the months between now and the US election are “absolutely critical” for Ukraine.
A crucial nine months
He said: “Without US support, then it is a lost cause… and people in Europe need to understand that, because the Russians will not stop.
“It is up to us in Europe, Nato countries in Europe, you know, we are the ones under direct attack and fight, and it is on us to provide Ukraine with everything it needs.”
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Colonel Bretton-Gordon said the UK should be throwing every piece of ammunition we have to Ukraine to avoid finding ourselves in the midst of World War 3.
“The Danish government has agreed to empty their stocks, give every bit of ammunition they’ve got to Ukraine, and quite frankly, we in the UK should be doing the same.
“Because if we don’t, we’re gonna be using that ammunition ourselves to fight the Russians, you know, come the end of this year.”
In a stark warning, he added: “We can’t rely on the Americans, post-November, and I think it’s a wake-up call.
“The number one thing is stopping Putin in Ukraine. Otherwise, the terrible reality of war in Europe is getting shockingly close.”
But the tank commander remains positive about Ukraine’s chances of success.
We can’t rely on the Americans, post November, and I think it’s a wake up call
Colonel Hamish de Bretton-Gordon
He said: “We have until November to make sure that Ukraine can prevail.
“I’ve seen the Ukrainians at close quarters. I think they’ve got the fighting spirit and the will to be able to push the Russians on the back foot.”
And he even thinks that with the right F-16 fighter jets and ammunition, Ukraine could push through on the frontline by this spring.
“The chance for Ukraine to push through is very much a possibility come the spring, but… we need to make sure they have the artillery ammunition.”
An ‘invitation to war’
Professor Anthony Glees, an intelligence expert from the University of Buckingham, told The Sun that Trump’s “chaotic” leadership style is dangerous, and that he has all but invited Putin to spark World War 3.
He explained: “Trump said if the members of Nato do not spend 2% or more, then he invites Russia to invade them and that is a very very serious thing.
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“If this 2% is not paid then we’ll have a situation where there will be war in Europe, it is an invitation to war.”
He was referencing Trump’s comments where he said he would encourage Russia to do “whatever the hell they want” to any Nato country that doesn’t pay enough.
Nato chief Jens Stoltenberg warned Trump’s comments about the alliance put American and European soldiers at risk.
But the ex-president’s allies have said Trump was simply trying to make Nato nations “pay their dues”.
Glees believes 2024 is the critical “crunch” year and to stop a wider war, Ukraine needs help to push Russia back.
Putin, he explains, very clearly wants to invade Eastern Europe and reabsorb it into Russia.
The only thing to stop a wider war in Europe in which the UK would be involved as a key member of Nato would be to enable Ukraine to drive Russia back
Professor Anthony Glees
The power of Nato has put him off the terrifying prospect so far, but what happens in Ukraine could change that.
“What he wants to do is to restore what was, the strategic sovereignty of the Soviet Union over eastern Europe.
“He’s been deterred so far by Nato, Trump has now essentially offered him an invitation to do that and that would involve us in the UK in a conventional war in Europe.”
Glees told The Sun: “The only thing to stop a wider war in Europe in which the UK would be involved as a key member of Nato would be to enable Ukraine to drive Russia back.”
What can Europe give to Ukraine?
Retired General Sir Richard Barrons told The Sun that the brutal war in Ukraine could drag on until at least 2026 unless serious action is taken, and soon.
And he said that Europe can afford to help “without breaking a sweat”.
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“If you look at the size of the Russian economy, it’s about $2.2 trillion GDP, and just the European economy is about $15 trillion GDP a year,” he explains.
“So if the West wants to, it can easily afford to produce the money and industry to give Ukraine the tools that it needs to fight.”
According to Glees, Putin believes if he can just keep pelting Ukraine until Trump is reelected, then the US backing will disappear and he’ll have a hefty advantage.
If the West wants to, it can easily afford to produce the money and industry to give Ukraine the tools that it needs to fight
Ret. General Richard Barrons
But, he insists,”If the West really puts its shoulder to the wheel that much more quickly Ukraine could have ammunition, equipment, training and money to overwhelm when it wants to on the battlefield.”
General Barrons explains that Europe can “find $50 or $60 billion a year in weapons, frankly, without breaking a sweat”.
He also warns of a wider conflict in Europe as the Russian despot could look at invading “the Baltic states or Poland or Hungary or Romania” if he wins in Ukraine.
Letting Ukraine lose means leaving Putin “ambitious and cross and powerful with a much bigger set of armed forces.”
“That’s a ridiculous place for Europe to be. So the West is in a period of vulnerability and it needs to move faster, to prepare itself to deter Russia,” he warned.
Europe has got to wake up
Professor Tim Willasey-Wilsey
And Professor Tim Willasey-Wilsey warned The Sun: “If a deal is done and Putin gets a lot of what he wants then he starts to look at Moldova.
“Or Georgia if we really want to worry ourselves, Estonia and then you’re into a NATO country.”
“We’re talking about can Ukraine now hang on and I think that’s what the whole story is about. Europe’s got to wake up.”
Russia’s ‘bloody attacks’
Former British Army Brigadier Ben Barry told The Sun that without US support Ukraine will seriously struggle to beat Russia.
The most recent aid package proposed by Biden, $60billion worth of US military equipment, is a key example.
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Without it, Barry says, the amount of vital war tools heading into Ukraine by next year will decrease by 40%.
And Russia’s technique on the battlefield – sustained and “very bloody attacks” will hit Zelensky’s forces that much harder.
Russia, I think in the near term, is hoping that it can outlast Ukraine’s Western supporters. And it’s looking forward to a Trump victory
Brig. Ben Barry
“Russia, I think in the near term, is hoping that it can outlast Ukraine’s Western supporters.
“And it’s looking forward to a Trump victory,” Barry said.
The former Army Brigadier explained that while the controversial politician has already damaged Nato credibility in the Russia-Ukraine war, he has many more months to do so before a potential win.
The scars of war in Ukraine
MOLFAR, Ukraine’s largest military and intelligence think tank – spoke to The Sun about the gruelling effects of war on the ground in Ukraine.
Artem Starosiek, CEO and founder, said that when the first-year anniversary passed in February 2023, a lot of Ukrainians were beaten down.
“When the one year passed, lots of people felt tired, I think… we understand that this is not a short war, and it will be a marathon.”
A year on, he says the same is true – but they persevere.
“We still want to win. To still be fighting,” he said.
But they desperately need Western support to keep up morale and gain the upper hand on the battlefield.
Starosiek said: “The lots of Ukrainian soldiers who die… because of the lack of the western support and that we didn’t get ammunition on time.”
In a chilling reminder of where Ukraine is now, he said: “After two years of war, everyone in Ukraine has had a relative who is fighting or who has died after this war.”
And General Barrons pointed out that Ukraine’s “Dad’s Army”, where the average age of a frontline soldier is 43, are tired.
“Those soldiers are on the frontline for 48 weeks a year. That’s really hard, and it’s winter and they’re tired.
“The scars of war will run deep and far, and the thing we need to remember is in the interests of European security.”
What would war with Russia look like for Brits?
General Barrons also painted a chilling picture of what a wider world war sparked by Russia would look like on the streets of everyday Britain.
He said Putin’s forces would send precision missiles to hit our “capital cities, our major metropolitan centres, our power infrastructure,” and “our food distribution centres” – to “break the will of the people”.
War with Russia means precision missiles hitting our capital cities, our major metropolitan centres, our power infrastructure, our food distribution centres – to break the will of people who fight
Ret. General Richard Barrons
“A war with Russia is not a war between armed forces. It’s a war between societies, and big wars are fought, won and lost by civil society.
“And we need to build a society that is resilient enough to think like that again, just as our forebears did in the 1st and 2nd World War.”
Nato is currently conducting a months-long series of war drills with countless member states to prepare for the eventuality that Europe could be dragged into a wider conflict with Russia.
And General Barrons told The Sun that we need to bolster our armed forces with resources and reserves, and face the very real possibility of Brits being called up to the frontlines if necessary.
“War touches everybody and everything.
“A war, say between Russia and European NATO would not be about a battle that went on a frontline, probably somewhere around Poland or Germany.
“It’s a war that, on a daily basis would touch life in the UK.”
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